NJD Thoughts - 1/25/23

Thoughts following NJ's 3-2 W in OT vs. VGK

1) Was planning to write something before the game started if there were enough engaging/interesting items to scribble about and one of the notes I had already written in my head late in the 3rd period was:

“I actually liked their overall game more tonight in a loss than in a lot of the recent wins.”

Then Dougie HIMilton happened. Think you can make the case this was the best full-60+ performance W since the CHI game, even moreso than @ ANA and @ DET.

2) The little things. Mentioned on Sunday’s pod that there were quite a few areas with room for improvement and I thought we got a lot of that last night. Legs looked fresh right away. Lot of jump. Forecheck was much harder and stiffer (see below). Quite a bit more back pressure on VGK NZ transition. They were competitive on every puck in the NZ and OZ. They forced 16 takeaways per NHL.com, 2nd most in a game for NJ this season.

3) That allowed them to do the sexy, fun stuff. LOT of easy exits from the DZ. Bunch of smooth NZ transitions into the OZ with control. They were whipping the puck around with a lot more ease and spacing than we’ve seen in a long time. Those few items alone looked late October-ish. Hopefully a pattern is coming, not a one-off.

4) Caught this nuanced play last night and had to clip it. Not my best slo-mo cut, but work with me:

Dawson Mercer shoulder checks THREE TIMES rapidly and that allowed him to anticipate the incoming forechecker. Evades him beautifully and it creates a rush slot chance the other way. He’s so goddamn smart.

5) Still some work to be done in the DZ. Too many silly giveaways and panic clear attempts. Their slot lane coverage was still shaky, though give them credit for collapsing and recovering as the DZ heat map looks pretty good. Though I do think VGK was a tick off on a few plays that could have been very dangerous. However, I thought they closed more plays off on the boards and definitely were not running around and chasing the puck as much as recent games.

6) Boy, if Dougie's shot could play a bit more at 5-on-4, maybe the PP will start to take it to the next level? Having to account for Dougie’s shot, Jack’s shot and the infrequent-but-sexy-when-it-connects Jack to Bratt one-timer? Though I have to say…hard to complain about a 21.4% conversion rate. That clip would tie them for the best number in the Shero/Fitz Era with the 2017-18 team when the highly under-appreciated (but Actual God) Geoff Ward ran the unit.

7) I’ve been tough on Ryan Graves off-podcast the last few games/weeks. He’s a tough watch sometimes with the way he pivots when the game is fast. Thought he was dynamite last night minus the one giveaway on the long rim behind the net. He looks A LOT better when the NJ opponent isn't a speed/transition team.

8) We were really hard on Miles Wood on Sunday, though I believe fair and objective. But I thought he gave you everything he had last night. He hustled his ass off. Cycled well. Even had a great back pressure on a potential VGK odd-man rush. A few times he was very close to being out of control with the puck on his stick, haha, but never got into utter chaos. Absolutely a net positive and it was nice to see his linemates step up too. Very happy for him. One game, but I hope it’s the start of something.

9) All the forward lines kind of worked, yea? Now, I know Palat-Hischier-Bratt gave up a lot in the DZ (44.9% xGF per MoneyPuck), but in the OZ they produced 2.5x as much 5-on-5 xG as the Hughes line. The other three lines were above 50% xGF, though, so that’s fun. (EDIT: Looks like Boqy is a scratch for Thursday, LOLk)

10) It’s tough for Kevin Bahl right now. Not an ideal developmental year for sure, but there’s no element of his game that’s NHL Adequate right now when he gets in the lineup. Probably doesn’t help that he and Brendan Smith are the same archetype of defenseman. Even when Marino comes back, the Devils are definitely going to have to trade for a NHL caliber #5-7 defenseman so they have some form of an NHL pro ready to step in during the Playoffs if a man goes down. Doesn’t have to be The End for Bahl long-term, but he doesn’t fit right now on a team that’s in a playoff/home-ice/division race.

11) All the numbers lately have said Jesper Bratt has been good, but part of me has been waiting to see the dangerous, dynamic, open-ice playmaking Jesper Bratt start to peek his head out more. He’s currently drawing penalties at 5-on-5 at the lowest rate of his career, per Natural Stat Trick.

So maybe he’s due for some regression or he legitimately just isn’t busting free enough. Think we saw a few moments of that during the PIT game though and the sequence before the Palat goal was all him getting up the ice with separation and then using his speed to retrieve a puck on a backcheck that sent NJ the other way to make it 1-0. More.

12) Now, NJ played great from a quality of chance/pace standpoint, which was something we wanted to see turn the other way. But was VGK a good matchup for them? Not fast…transition not a strength. Very leaky between the blue lines. I think the way DAL plays/executes against NJ on Friday will tell you if that was a matchup-based performance or not. Maybe even the NSH game will help answer that question to a degree since a John Hynes system will try and take away the NZ.

13) That was a fun studio crew yesterday. I can’t say I watch E+/Hulu exclusive games consistently, but it seems like P.K. Subban is finding a rhythm and identity as a studio analyst, especially with the PK GQ segment. Kevin Weekes vibes with everyone. And Ryan Callahan did some nice X’s/O’s work during intermission ala Bryce…think that’s a better lane for him than in-arena Game Analyst. That group and AJ Mleczko should be the studio crew as much as possible. Less Chelios, Messier and DiPietro. Thanks.

14) If you haven’t seen it or want to watch it for the 987th time, here’s P.K. Subban GOING OFF about Jack Hughes 4 MVP.

Devils Insiders @DevilsInsiders

LMFAO @PKSubban1 we love you SO MUCH. #NJDevils

See you Thursday.